WASHINGTON - President Obama is expected to unveil his U.S. troopreduction plan for Afghanistan this week, buoyed by assessments bysenior Defense officials that the U.S. war strategy is headed in theright direction and has weakened the Taliban-led insurgency.
But some U.S. officials in Washington and in Afghanistan areconcerned that many of the gains aren't sustainable, and conditionsare too fragile to allow for the "significant" troop drawdown thatObama is being pressured to begin next month by some top aides andgrowing numbers of lawmakers of both parties.
Violence is worse, many Taliban appear to have moved elsewhererather than fight U.S. forces surged into the south, the Afghangovernment and security forces remain far from capable, andcounterinsurgency cooperation with Pakistan is all but frozen, theseU.S. officials said.
"The situation is terrible. Has there been a qualitative changethat disadvantages the opposition and advantages the (U.S.-led)coalition? I don't buy it," said a U.S. official, who requestedanonymity because he wasn't authorized to discuss the issuepublicly. "The Taliban remains a clever, adaptive enemy."
Moreover, there has been no apparent progress toward conveningtalks on a political settlement with the Taliban following threesecret meetings between a senior U.S. diplomat and a former top aideto Mullah Mohammad Omar, the Taliban leader based in southwesternPakistan.
While the U.S. surge has dealt the insurgents major setbacks andOsama bin Laden is dead, Omar and other hard-liners have fewincentives to negotiate given the growing domestic pressure on Obamato begin withdrawing U.S. troops and meet a 2014 deadline for allcombat forces to be out, some experts said.
"We have to display steadfastness, cohesion and purpose, and Ithink all of those things are in doubt about us," said RonaldNeumann, the U.S. ambassador to Kabul from 2004 to 2007.
Army Gen. David Petraeus, the commander of U.S.-led forces inAfghanistan, submitted his drawdown options this week to the WhiteHouse, where they are so tightly held that administration spokesmenrefused to confirm when Obama would announce his final decision.
But a senior U.S. military official, who requested anonymitybecause of the secrecy surrounding the plan, said Obama is expectedto unveil his plan next week.
Petraeus' proposal includes a recommendation to shift U.S. surgetroops out of parts of southern Kandahar and Helmand provinces toeastern provinces bordering Pakistan, where the Taliban and alliedgroups maintain sanctuaries, according to several U.S. officials whorequested anonymity.
Afghan army and police units, accompanied by U.S. militarymentors, would replace the U.S. forces redeployed from Kandahar'sArghandab Valley and the Helmand River Valley, they said.
Obama pledged to begin withdrawing some of the 100,000 U.S.troops next month in a Dec. 1, 2009, speech in which he laid out hisstrategy to prevent a Taliban takeover of Afghanistan that wouldallow al-Qaida to re-establish a sanctuary in the war-ravagedcountry of 36 million.
Obama is under considerable pressure to pull out a significantportion of the 30,000 additional soldiers he ordered there for asurge, mostly in the Taliban's southern strongholds, from members ofboth parties anxious to reduce federal spending, and from themajority of Americans weary of the nearly decade-old war.
The killing of bin Laden in a May 2 U.S. Navy SEAL raid on hishideout near Pakistan's capital, Islamabad, has added to thatpressure.
Some Obama lieutenants, led by Vice President Joe Biden, also arereportedly pushing for a substantial reduction, their eyes onObama's campaign for re-election next year.
Senior U.S. Defense officials insist that the U.S. strategy -coupling military operations with training 305,000 Afghan securityforces by October, and intensified efforts to improve governance,build infrastructure and boost government services - is headed inthe right direction.
They point to a weakened Taliban presence and revived commerceand development in southern areas that the militants once dominated,the expanding Afghan army and police, and Pakistan's deployment of140,000 troops on the border to block insurgents from crossing.
"I believe we are being successful in implementing thepresident's strategy, and I believe that our military operations arebeing successful in denying the Taliban control of populated areas,degrading their capabilities and improving the capabilities of theAfghan national security forces," Defense Secretary Robert Gatessaid Thursday.
Yet Gates, who's retiring this month, also warned on June 10against a rapid U.S. drawdown that could jeopardize those gains,saying it must be done "in a deliberate, organized and coordinatedmanner." Petraeus has also called those gains "fragile andreversible."
The Afghan government is due to assume security next month inseven provinces and districts in a process that is due to culminatein its assumption of security nationwide by 2014.
Neumann said that the strategy is about a year behind schedule,delayed by the extensive preparations that were required to launchit, like building bases to house the additional U.S. troops.
"We are roughly a year behind where a lot of peopleunrealistically hoped we'd be ... now," he said.
Many Afghans want the Americans to leave, even though they havelittle faith that their forces can prevail, U.S. commanders say.Indeed, in a briefing on Thursday, hours before Gates offered hisupbeat assessment, Marine Maj. Gen. John Toolan Jr. said the impactof withdrawing U.S. forces remains to be seen.
"We are trying to work very hard at, to build up, is what we callthe Afghan Local Police," said Toolan, the U.S. commander insouthwestern Afghanistan. "But if they're not able to stand up, orif they are co-opted by the insurgents, then that fragility sort ofoccurs. And it becomes a problem then to get back into the villagesand try to re-establish a secure environment."
A recent classified U.S. Army study found that Afghan troops arebecoming increasingly enraged by civilian casualties and what theyconsider mistreatment by their U.S. trainers, resulting in thekilling of 58 Western personnel by Afghan soldiers in 26 attackssince May 2007.
"Such fratricide-murder incidents are no longer isolated; theyreflect a growing systemic threat," that could derail the U.S.strategy, according to a copy of the study obtained by McClatchyNewspapers. It was first reported on Friday by the Wall StreetJournal.
Most importantly, the war has become deadlier for civilians andsoldiers alike.
Last week, the United Nations said that May was the deadliestmonth for civilians since it began tracking such statistics in 2007.According to U.N. data, 368 civilians died, 82 percent of themkilled by the Taliban, 12 by coalition forces and 6 percent unknown.
Obama expected to unveil Afghan drawdown plan this week
WASHINGTON - President Obama is expected to unveil his U.S. troopreduction plan for Afghanistan this week, buoyed by assessments bysenior Defense officials that the U.S. war strategy is headed in theright direction and has weakened the Taliban-led insurgency.
But some U.S. officials in Washington and in Afghanistan areconcerned that many of the gains aren't sustainable, and conditionsare too fragile to allow for the "significant" troop drawdown thatObama is being pressured to begin next month by some top aides andgrowing numbers of lawmakers of both parties.
Violence is worse, many Taliban appear to have moved elsewhererather than fight U.S. forces surged into the south, the Afghangovernment and security forces remain far from capable, andcounterinsurgency cooperation with Pakistan is all but frozen, theseU.S. officials said.
"The situation is terrible. Has there been a qualitative changethat disadvantages the opposition and advantages the (U.S.-led)coalition? I don't buy it," said a U.S. official, who requestedanonymity because he wasn't authorized to discuss the issuepublicly. "The Taliban remains a clever, adaptive enemy."
Moreover, there has been no apparent progress toward conveningtalks on a political settlement with the Taliban following threesecret meetings between a senior U.S. diplomat and a former top aideto Mullah Mohammad Omar, the Taliban leader based in southwesternPakistan.
While the U.S. surge has dealt the insurgents major setbacks andOsama bin Laden is dead, Omar and other hard-liners have fewincentives to negotiate given the growing domestic pressure on Obamato begin withdrawing U.S. troops and meet a 2014 deadline for allcombat forces to be out, some experts said.
"We have to display steadfastness, cohesion and purpose, and Ithink all of those things are in doubt about us," said RonaldNeumann, the U.S. ambassador to Kabul from 2004 to 2007.
Army Gen. David Petraeus, the commander of U.S.-led forces inAfghanistan, submitted his drawdown options this week to the WhiteHouse, where they are so tightly held that administration spokesmenrefused to confirm when Obama would announce his final decision.
But a senior U.S. military official, who requested anonymitybecause of the secrecy surrounding the plan, said Obama is expectedto unveil his plan next week.
Petraeus' proposal includes a recommendation to shift U.S. surgetroops out of parts of southern Kandahar and Helmand provinces toeastern provinces bordering Pakistan, where the Taliban and alliedgroups maintain sanctuaries, according to several U.S. officials whorequested anonymity.
Afghan army and police units, accompanied by U.S. militarymentors, would replace the U.S. forces redeployed from Kandahar'sArghandab Valley and the Helmand River Valley, they said.
Obama pledged to begin withdrawing some of the 100,000 U.S.troops next month in a Dec. 1, 2009, speech in which he laid out hisstrategy to prevent a Taliban takeover of Afghanistan that wouldallow al-Qaida to re-establish a sanctuary in the war-ravagedcountry of 36 million.
Obama is under considerable pressure to pull out a significantportion of the 30,000 additional soldiers he ordered there for asurge, mostly in the Taliban's southern strongholds, from members ofboth parties anxious to reduce federal spending, and from themajority of Americans weary of the nearly decade-old war.
The killing of bin Laden in a May 2 U.S. Navy SEAL raid on hishideout near Pakistan's capital, Islamabad, has added to thatpressure.
Some Obama lieutenants, led by Vice President Joe Biden, also arereportedly pushing for a substantial reduction, their eyes onObama's campaign for re-election next year.
Senior U.S. Defense officials insist that the U.S. strategy -coupling military operations with training 305,000 Afghan securityforces by October, and intensified efforts to improve governance,build infrastructure and boost government services - is headed inthe right direction.
They point to a weakened Taliban presence and revived commerceand development in southern areas that the militants once dominated,the expanding Afghan army and police, and Pakistan's deployment of140,000 troops on the border to block insurgents from crossing.
"I believe we are being successful in implementing thepresident's strategy, and I believe that our military operations arebeing successful in denying the Taliban control of populated areas,degrading their capabilities and improving the capabilities of theAfghan national security forces," Defense Secretary Robert Gatessaid Thursday.
Yet Gates, who's retiring this month, also warned on June 10against a rapid U.S. drawdown that could jeopardize those gains,saying it must be done "in a deliberate, organized and coordinatedmanner." Petraeus has also called those gains "fragile andreversible."
The Afghan government is due to assume security next month inseven provinces and districts in a process that is due to culminatein its assumption of security nationwide by 2014.
Neumann said that the strategy is about a year behind schedule,delayed by the extensive preparations that were required to launchit, like building bases to house the additional U.S. troops.
"We are roughly a year behind where a lot of peopleunrealistically hoped we'd be ... now," he said.
Many Afghans want the Americans to leave, even though they havelittle faith that their forces can prevail, U.S. commanders say.Indeed, in a briefing on Thursday, hours before Gates offered hisupbeat assessment, Marine Maj. Gen. John Toolan Jr. said the impactof withdrawing U.S. forces remains to be seen.
"We are trying to work very hard at, to build up, is what we callthe Afghan Local Police," said Toolan, the U.S. commander insouthwestern Afghanistan. "But if they're not able to stand up, orif they are co-opted by the insurgents, then that fragility sort ofoccurs. And it becomes a problem then to get back into the villagesand try to re-establish a secure environment."
A recent classified U.S. Army study found that Afghan troops arebecoming increasingly enraged by civilian casualties and what theyconsider mistreatment by their U.S. trainers, resulting in thekilling of 58 Western personnel by Afghan soldiers in 26 attackssince May 2007.
"Such fratricide-murder incidents are no longer isolated; theyreflect a growing systemic threat," that could derail the U.S.strategy, according to a copy of the study obtained by McClatchyNewspapers. It was first reported on Friday by the Wall StreetJournal.
Most importantly, the war has become deadlier for civilians andsoldiers alike.
Last week, the United Nations said that May was the deadliestmonth for civilians since it began tracking such statistics in 2007.According to U.N. data, 368 civilians died, 82 percent of themkilled by the Taliban, 12 by coalition forces and 6 percent unknown.
